Is this the man that will be giving his country a new direction come Sunday? In final opinion polls released 2 weeks before the elections, he remains the frontrunner for the Presidential elections in Ukraine – which are the first since the ‘Orange Revolution’ which dramatically rocked the nation in 2004. Viktor Yanukovych, twice Prime Minister of the nation is certainly seen as the leading candidate heading into the polls this week. While his only real challenger comes in the form of Yulia Tymoshenko, who replaced him as PM in 2007. The two candidates are neck and neck in the polls with varying results being predicted between a 5 and 10% gap but the one thing this election is unlikely to bring, that Ukraine desperately craves, is stability. But with the incumbent, Viktor Yushchenko, unlikely to survive a first round vote have all his pro-European policies been a waste of time as the nation is set to turn towards Russia?

Very little attention, if any, has been given to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine by western media yet these elections remain a highly important event for relations between the EU and Russia, which usually gives the media an excuse to inflame the differences between them. Yushchenko for example has referred to both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko as the ‘Moscow Project’ referring to their seemingly Moscow leaning policies, including discussions over the Russian Black Sea fleet which is currently based in the Ukraine’s Crimea region until 2017. But both ‘Moscow’ candidates have said they will protest against the result unless they win in second round voting – echoing the huge unrest that was caused in 2004 when Yanukovych was declared winner and then later accused of election fraud which promoted the election of the incumbent Yushchenko. However there is doubt whether the Ukrainian people will be as keen to protest against an election result when the country is blighted by economic crisis. The President last week suggested that the Prime Minister herself (Tymoshenko) should take a break from front-line politics as each month she remains in office “results in a colossal poverty” for Ukraine.

Six years on from the so called ‘revolution’, Ukraine is widely only covered in the news when it fails to pay gas bills to Russia who cut off supplies to the eastern-European nation, which has a knock on effect across Europe. It is this instability not just in energy, but also economic and political instability, which continues to threaten Ukraine’s position within Europe and its relationship with Russia. Politicians across Europe, and within Ukraine itself, need to realise that the future of the country will depend on stable governance and that without policies which allow the country to balance relations with the European Union, NATO and Russia the future of Ukraine will continue to be difficult to predict. Ukrainians will find it hard to vote for a candidate on Sunday that will hold the country together – the country is still split in half in terms of candidates and in one article which I read one Ukrainian worker said that “We should cut Ukraine in two, and give half to Poland and half to Russia.” In the hight of economic problems, a government which is paralysed by political infighting is finding it difficult to respond, with even conditions set by the IMF after a loan was agreed not being implemented.

Hopefully the 3,000+ observers at these elections can prove that the result is a viable one and that the second round voting does not spark such political controversy as before. After watching a European Union question session to Baroness Ashton on BBC Parliament the other day, it is clear all around Europe there is strong concern over the situation in Ukraine. The road to stability is one that will clearly be rocky, but with support from both the EU and Russia perhaps some agreements can push forward reforms in the country and give the government something to work with. In her new role Baroness Ashton must show that the EU is committed to Ukraine and that the hard work of President Yushchenko is not forgotten come Sunday.